Leaked Russian Records Suggest 450,000 Russian Casualties in Ukraine War

Leaked records, allegedly from Rosstat, Russia's state statistics agency, suggest that over 450,000 Russian citizens, predominantly soldiers, have died in the war in Ukraine up to August of this year. These figures reportedly emerged from data obtained by two hacking groups, Belarusian Cyber Partisans and Ukraine's Silent Crow.

The leaked documents indicate that the war's toll has disproportionately affected older men, residents of poorer regions, and foreign recruits. While Rosstat confirmed it was hit by cyberattacks, it denied any compromise of its databases or leakage of protected data.

Highlights

• According to the leaked records, at least 450,000 Russian citizens are believed to have died in the Ukraine war by August.
• Among the deceased are over 4,000 foreign citizens, reportedly fighting for Russia, from countries including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Nepal, Colombia, and Nigeria.
• The data suggests the average age of those killed in the war rose to 40 by 2025, with men aged 35-44 constituting the largest group.
• The hacking groups published their analysis and shared the files with news organizations; experts believe the data is authentic.
• Areas with the highest reported casualties include front-line locations such as Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Bakhmut.

Details

The Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow announced on November 1 that they had breached Rosstat's network. The groups published their analysis of the records and shared the files with several news organizations. Although the data has not been independently verified, media outlets and analysts, including Janis Kluge, an expert on Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believe it to be real.

Kluge stated, "There is no longer any doubt that the leaked Rosstat database is authentic." However, he added that the question of whether the data was manipulated to inflate war death tolls is trickier, but deemed it "unbelievably difficult" and a "highly unlikely conspiracy theory."

Investigations by The Financial Times (FT) concluded that once late paperwork is accounted for, the total death toll up to August could reach approximately 550,000. Around 120,000 of those with a recorded location died in the Avdiivka and Pokrovsk areas, with another 48,000 in Bakhmut. High casualty rates were also observed in regions with significant minority populations, such as Buryats and Bashkirs.

Why it matters

These leaked records offer a significant insight into the true human cost of the Ukraine war for Russia. The disproportionate impact on older men and individuals from minority regions, alongside the high number of foreign combatants, highlights critical aspects of Russia's military strategies and demographic challenges. Experts suggest that such a rate of population loss raises serious questions about Russia's ability to sustain and win the war.