US Midterms Approach: Trump and Republicans Face 'Change' Message That Brought Them to Power
With less than a week until the US midterm elections, President Donald Trump and Republicans are confronting the same 'change' message that swept them into power two years ago, now directed squarely a
As the US midterm elections draw near, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are facing a significant challenge. The 'change' message that propelled them to the White House and control of Congress two years ago is now being turned against them. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
Highlights
- Economy and Inflation: The economy is in worse shape than when Trump took office in 2024, with inflation rising to 3.7% in September, up from 2.7% in November 2024.
- Wars and Foreign Policy: Despite Trump's promise to end wars, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and he initiated a new war against Iran with Israel in February. This conflict shows no signs of ending, and 56% of Americans opposed it from the start.
- Public Disapproval: Only 34% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, while 65% disapprove, according to a CNBC survey. This marks his lowest approval rating in either term and is worse than Joe Biden's lowest showing.
- Internal Party Divisions: Prominent figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson have publicly broken with Trump over his policies. Joe Rogan highlighted Trump's broken promise of 'no more wars' in light of current conflicts.
- Shifting Financial Support: The main Republican Senate Super PAC has redirected advertising funds away from states like Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska, which Trump won by double digits, indicating concerns about his influence.
Details
Two years ago, inflation and the economy were key factors in Trump's return to the White House and the Republican Party's control of both chambers of Congress. According to 2024 ABC News exit polls, 28% of voters identified the ability to bring about needed change as the most important quality in a candidate, and Trump secured 74% of their votes. However, the same 'change' message is now blowing against the Republicans.
Economic indicators have worsened. Gasoline prices have risen to an average of $4.25 per gallon from $2.98 before the war, while diesel has climbed from $3.76 to $6.35. This particularly impacts Trump's rural base of farmers, ranchers, and truckers. Policies such as the impact of data centers on rural communities and the temporary suspension of beef tariffs have also caused discontent among his supporters. A Politico poll shows that half of Americans now oppose a data center within three miles of their home.
Trump has also clashed with some staunch conservatives within his own party. In Kentucky, Congressman Thomas Massie lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton, backed by Trump, defeated long-serving Senator John Cornyn. However, with Democratic rising star James Talarico leading Paxton in recent polls, Republicans risk losing a seat they have held for over three decades.
Why it matters
These midterm elections serve as a crucial test of Trump's political power and his influence over the Republican Party. Significant losses for the party could lead to questions about Trump's leadership and a shift in internal party dynamics ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. Economic hardships and ongoing wars are fueling voters' desire for 'change,' and the outcomes of these elections could have wide-ranging implications from the White House to Europe.