Ethiopia: Conflict Escalates Beyond Tigray as New Alliance Targets Government
Fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified and spread beyond the Tigray region, with a new alliance of armed groups aiming to overthrow the government.
Highlights
- Clashes have intensified across northern Ethiopia, affecting the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, with multiple active fronts.
- Government-aligned forces claim to have captured Alamata, a key supply town in southern Tigray.
- Forces from Tigray have advanced into Afar, potentially threatening the Semera-Djibouti corridor, a vital import route for Ethiopia.
- Seven Ethiopian armed and political groups have formed an alliance, the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival," with the stated goal of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
- Ethiopia's army chief has accused Eritrea, Sudan's military, and Egypt of supporting the armed factions, though these nations deny the allegations.
Details
Around four years after a peace agreement concluded a two-year conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, renewed hostilities have escalated and extended into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Government forces and their allies reportedly seized Alamata, a strategically important town approximately 120 km (75 miles) south of Mekelle, the regional capital, on September 28. This town serves as a critical hub for military supplies, fuel, and food. According to the conflict monitor ACLED, Alamata was subjected to between 15 and 17 drone strikes on September 22, impacting several schools and a hospital.
Simultaneously, a distinct area of conflict has emerged near the Tekeze River in western Tigray, a territory contested between Tigray and Amhara. Further east, Tigrayan forces, alongside the Afar armed faction Ugugumo, have pushed into the Afar region. This advance is significant as it could jeopardize the Semera-Djibouti corridor, which is Ethiopia's primary channel for imports, including fuel.
On September 20, a coalition of seven Ethiopian armed and political organizations announced the formation of the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival." This alliance aims to depose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration and establish an inclusive transitional government. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a dominant political force in Ethiopia for nearly three decades before Abiy's ascent in 2018, is identified as the primary military component of this alliance. While the full membership of the alliance faces some disputes, ACLED reported that as of September 26, the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and Ugugumo were actively engaging federal forces.
Why it matters
Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous nation, is characterized by its rich ethnic diversity, with over 80 distinct groups. Its federal structure is largely based on ethnic and linguistic divisions. The current resurgence of conflict stems from unresolved political and territorial disputes lingering from the 2020-2022 Tigray war. The expansion of fighting beyond Tigray and the formation of a new alliance seeking to unseat the government raise concerns about broader regional instability and a potential humanitarian crisis. Disruptions to telecommunications and flight suspensions are already hindering humanitarian efforts and severing family connections.