Ethiopia on Edge: Renewed Fighting in Tigray Sparks Civil War Fears

Intense fighting has reignited between Ethiopia's federal army and forces from the northern Tigray region, sparking fears that the peace agreement which ended a devastating two-year war in 2022 could unravel. This escalation comes just days after seven armed groups from across Ethiopia formed a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.

Highlights

• Fighting between the federal army and Tigrayan forces has intensified, raising concerns about the 2022 peace agreement.
• Seven armed groups have formed a new alliance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, uniting former adversaries.
• Key members of this alliance include the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano National Movement, groups that previously fought each other.
• Clashes reportedly began in southern Tigray and have spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
• The African Union and the East African bloc IGAD have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to peace talks.

Details

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) originated as an armed movement in the 1970s against Ethiopia's military government, later becoming the dominant force in the coalition that governed Ethiopia for nearly three decades. However, with Abiy Ahmed becoming prime minister in 2018, the TPLF's influence in the central government waned. Relations deteriorated, leading to war in November 2020, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced.

The peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022, ended the full-scale war but left some core disputes unresolved, particularly concerning western Tigray. Fighters from the Amhara region, who fought alongside the federal army during the 2020-2022 war, took control of western Tigray. Tigrayan leaders are now demanding the return of this territory and the right for hundreds of thousands of displaced people to return home. Many in Amhara, however, dispute Tigray's claim to the area.

The new Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, announced this month, includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). While these groups have diverse histories and objectives, they share a stated goal of removing Abiy's government. Jervin Naidoo, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, noted, "Since the end of the war, while the Pretoria Agreement has held, there have been consistent violations on both sides."

Why it matters

These latest clashes risk plunging Ethiopia back into a civil war, a conflict from which the country has been trying to recover for nearly four years. Actions such as the seizure of airports in Tigray are seen as inconsistent with the 2022 peace agreement. There is also a risk of regional escalation, with concerns about potential involvement from neighboring Eritrea. The African Union and other regional bodies are making urgent calls for de-escalation and a return to negotiations to prevent a wider crisis.