Japan Faces Diplomatic Challenge Amid Joint Pressure from Russia and China

As the war in Ukraine persists, relations between Russia and neighboring Japan have deteriorated to their lowest point in decades. Tokyo is seeking increased support from Washington, but some Japanese citizens are concerned that this assistance may not materialize. Japan is currently navigating a significant diplomatic challenge under joint pressure from Russia and China.

Highlights

• On October 13, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested Japanese journalist Yuki Imai on Sakhalin Island on espionage charges; Japan denies these allegations.
• Japan's sanctions on Russia, imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine, are seen as a primary factor in the worsening bilateral relations.
• China is exerting pressure on Japan over Taiwan, and Russia, relying on China's support in the Ukraine war, has joined this pressure campaign.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin visited one of the disputed islands, referred to as the Southern Kurils by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan, in August.
• Japan, facing three nuclear powers—Russia, China, and North Korea—is heavily reliant on its sole ally, the United States.

Details

On October 13, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested Japanese journalist Yuki Imai on Sakhalin Island, accusing him of espionage. The Japanese government has denied these charges. Shinji Hyodo, a Russia expert at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, suggests that Russia intends to use this incident as a political bargaining chip to pressure Japan. Hyodo indicates that the underlying cause of the current tensions is Japan's sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

Hyodo states that Japan is currently facing its greatest diplomatic challenge since the end of World War II, noting that this is no longer merely a bilateral issue between Japan and Russia. China began pressuring Japan last year after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could justify a Japanese military response. Russia, depending on China's support in its war in Ukraine, has joined China in this pressure on Japan.

Another contributing factor is the long-standing territorial dispute between Russia and Japan. The Soviet Union seized four disputed islands at the end of World War II. A permanent peace treaty was never signed due to this dispute and a warning from the U.S. According to James Brown of Temple University, then-U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles's 1956 suggestion was that if Japan settled the territorial dispute with the Soviet Union, the U.S. might retain indefinite administration of Okinawa. This led to the Soviet Union keeping the islands and the U.S. returning Okinawa to Japan, which remains a key U.S. military hub in Asia.

Why it matters

Japan is navigating a difficult diplomatic period, confronting three nuclear powers: Russia, China, and North Korea. Its reliance on the United States, its only ally, limits Japan's diplomatic maneuverability. The perceived lack of U.S. interest in Japan's conflict with Russia, coupled with the possibility of a trilateral summit involving the U.S., China, and Russia at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, could further complicate Japan's diplomatic position. Whether Japan receives strong support from the U.S. in this situation is crucial for regional stability.